On January 26, 2024, the market fluctuated and differentiated all day. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.06% and the Growth Enterprise Market Index fell 2.23%. Northbound funds bought 1.51 billion net all day.
In terms of sectors, PEEK materials, Hainan, real estate and Shanghai state-owned assets were among the top gainers, while CRO, semiconductors, MR and BC batteries were among the top losers.
In ETF, S&P ETF(159655.SZ), real estate ETF Huaxia (515060.SH) and real estate ETF(512200.SH) led the gains. In addition, banks, games, and delivery ETFs were also boosted by relevant news, with the highest gains.
[Financial support for real estate, favorable policies resonate]
In the news, the relevant person in charge of the State Financial Supervision Bureau said that it will continue to provide personal housing loan financial services. We will support local city governments and housing construction departments to further optimize individual housing loan policies such as down payment ratio and loan interest rate, and guide and urge banks to better serve the financing needs of the broad masses of people for rigid and improved housing.
In addition, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a voice on January 26, 2024, fully giving urban real estate control autonomy, and cities can adjust their real estate policies according to local conditions. In view of the current financing problems of some real estate projects, all localities should focus on projects, study and put forward a list of real estate projects that can be given financing support, coordinate the issuance of loans by financial institutions within their respective administrative regions, and accurately and effectively support reasonable financing needs. It is understood that before the end of this month, the first batch of projects can win loans after landing.
Huatai Securities believes that the press conference makes it clear that the financial industry is duty-bound to support real estate vigorously, and optimize policies such as down payment ratio and loan interest rate due to the city’s policy. At present, the mortgage interest rate has gone through several rounds of LPR adjustment, and the lower limit of the point has been gradually relaxed until a dynamic breakthrough. Many places have lowered or cancelled the lower limit of the interest rate due to the city’s policy. RealData shows that the national first home interest rate has dropped to 3.84% in January 2004, down 1.59pct from the high point in October 2001. In September 2003, the stock mortgage interest rate was lowered to further reduce the burden on residents. Many cities have implemented the policy of "recognizing houses but not loans" and optimized the criteria for recognizing the first suite, and the policy adjustment has gradually spread from low-energy cities to high-energy cities. There is still room for the relaxation of the future purchase restriction policy in first-tier cities.
Related ETFs: real estate ETF Huaxia (515060.SH), real estate ETF(512200.SH), real estate ETF(159768.SZ), real estate ETF(159707.SZ), financial real estate ETF(510650.SH) and financial real estate ETF(159940.SZ).
[Cancel the restrictions on the proportion of foreign investment, and banks will welcome benefits again]
In the news, on January 25, 2024, the relevant person in charge of the General Administration of Financial Supervision said that more than 50 opening-up measures have been introduced recently. First, the restriction on the proportion of foreign shares will be abolished. Now, foreign capital can hold 100% of the shares of bank insurance institutions and achieve complete control. Second, the negative list of foreign investment access, and the relevant restrictive measures on the financial industry have been completely cleaned up. For example, the business scope of foreign banks and insurance institutions is completely consistent with that of Chinese capital, realizing national treatment.
Huatai Securities believes that the press conference of the State Council Office made a heavy noise, and the policies at both ends of real estate supply and demand were once again overweight, emphasizing the resolution of risks of small and medium-sized banks and relaxing the proportion of foreign ownership. The combination of the central bank’s policy of lowering the RRR at the beginning of the year will help improve the liquidity environment and accumulate momentum for economic recovery. The policy is expected to be good+the valuation position is double low, and we should seize the opportunity of bank allocation. At present, the valuation of PB(lf) in the banking sector is 0.54 times, which is 3.66% quantile since 2010, which is at a low level. Bank positions of 23Q4 decreased by 0.6pct from the previous month to 1.91%, a record low.
Related ETFs: Bank ETF Huaxia (515020.SH), Bank Leading ETF(515280.SH), China Securities Bank ETF(512730.SH), Bank ETF(512800.SH), Banking ETF(512820.SH) and Bank ETF(159887.SZ).
[Spring Festival travel rush opens on the first day, and the travel industry chain is expected to benefit]
In the news, today (January 26th) is the first day of Spring Festival travel rush in 2024. Railway 12306 began to sell train tickets for February 9, that is, the 30 th day of the twelfth lunar month. It is estimated that during the period of Spring Festival travel rush this year, the cross-regional personnel flow will reach 9 billion. According to the booking data of 12306, on the first day of Spring Festival travel rush, the national railway is expected to send 10.6 million passengers.
Yongxing Securities believes that the traditional holidays are coming and the travel industry chain is expected to benefit as a whole. Near the 8-day holiday of the Spring Festival, the travel heat of the Ma Honeycomb Platform during the Spring Festival rose by 350%, showing an upward trend. The reunion festival has become the choice of most tourists to promote family travel, and the family parent-child group accounts for 42% of the Spring Festival travellers. Ctrip shows that orders for domestic travel, outbound travel and inbound travel have all increased substantially. Considering that during the traditional holidays, the flow of visiting relatives and tourists will overlap, the demand for domestic and outbound travel will increase, and the travel industry chain is expected to benefit as a whole.
Related ETFs: Travel ETF(159766.SZ), Travel ETF(562510.SH), Delivery ETF(561320.SH), Transportation ETF(159683.SZ), Transportation ETF(159666.SZ) and Delivery ETF(159662.SZ).
[115 games approved! The game plate oscillated and rebounded]
On January 26th, 2024, relevant departments released the approval information of domestic online games in January, and a total of 115 games were approved. Since the edition number was resumed in 2022, the number of edition numbers in a single month has exceeded 100 for two consecutive months, and the overall edition number has remained stable.
Citic Securities believes that in the medium and long term, there are still opportunities for the development of China’s game industry, especially related companies that focus on quality content and development in the sea. At the same time, the game industry is an industry that pays attention to innovation. Through technological innovations such as AI and VR, as well as business model innovations in gameplay and categories, game companies are still expected to continue to create increments.
Related ETFs: game animation ETF(516770.SH), game ETF(516010.SH), game ETF(159869.SZ) and game media ETF(517770.SH).